Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.5  33.3  33.5  28.6  43.2  41.0  35.5  N  U  U  U  N VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  77.0  76.0  68.0  57.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  78.6  74.4  80.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  38.0  58.0  41.0  85.0  75.0  73.0  80.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0  -4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        7.3%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       27.6%       25.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.1%       19.8%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h       11.2%       19.8%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.2%       17.1%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%        9.3%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        2.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.9%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP312025 251104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.5  33.3  33.5  28.6  43.2  41.0  35.5  N  F  F  F  N VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0  -4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%