Rapid Intensification Guidance WP312025 251104 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.90 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 33.3 33.6 29.6 36.5 41.8 37.6 33.7 U U U N U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 78.0 76.0 68.0 60.0 40.0 18.0 2.8 8.3 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 82.9 76.5 78.6 87.3 N N N N N U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 58.0 41.0 47.0 95.0 62.0 107.0 30.0 N N N N F N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 69.0 67.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -8.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.7% 8.9% 11.3% 25kt / 24h 26.9% 33.7% 30.3% 30kt / 24h 16.3% 27.4% 21.9% 35kt / 24h 14.4% 27.4% 20.9% 40kt / 24h 7.3% 22.1% 14.7% 45kt / 36h 12.3% 10.5% 11.4% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 3.3% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 WP312025 251104 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.90 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.3 33.3 33.6 29.6 36.5 41.8 37.6 33.7 F F F N F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 69.0 67.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 -7.0 -8.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%