Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  34.6  31.2  28.2  37.2  39.9  31.3  30.6  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  65.0  59.0  52.0  27.0   0.0  10.8  21.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  73.6  69.4  73.6  77.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  22.0  44.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  31.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  71.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0 -14.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.0%       13.2%       19.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.1%       39.8%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       25.2%       35.3%       30.3%
 35kt / 24h       24.0%       35.3%       29.7%
 40kt / 24h       15.7%       31.6%       23.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%       10.7%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        3.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP312025 251105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  34.6  31.2  28.2  37.2  39.9  31.3  30.6  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  71.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0 -14.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  U  N  N  N VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%