Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  31.6  29.1  31.6  39.7  36.3  28.0  23.2  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  53.0  51.0  35.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  79.6  72.9  60.5  68.6  72.9  77.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  44.0  79.0  86.0  79.0  93.0  61.0   2.0  U  N  N  F  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0 -12.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.5%       17.0%       26.8%
 25kt / 24h       36.2%       37.0%       36.6%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       33.1%       30.5%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       33.1%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       28.2%       21.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%        8.9%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        2.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP312025 251105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    117.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.3  31.6  29.1  31.6  39.7  36.3  28.0  23.2  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0 -12.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%