Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.6  37.6  41.9  38.8  24.8  15.4  14.8  U  U  U VU  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  28.0  17.0   0.0   1.4   2.8   4.2   5.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  52.9  42.4  40.5  48.6  52.9  62.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  89.0  90.0  78.0  89.0  66.0   2.0  20.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0 -12.0 -12.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.0%        8.9%       25.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%        7.9%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%        4.8%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%        4.8%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%        3.1%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP312025 251105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.6  37.6  41.9  38.8  24.8  15.4  14.8  F  F  F VF  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0 -12.0 -12.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%