Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  38.2  40.3  38.1  30.0  21.7  16.2  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  17.0   0.0   3.5  10.5  17.5  24.5  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         31.5  29.4  27.4  37.9  40.1  47.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  46.0  61.0  67.0  78.0  48.0  22.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.0%        3.3%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        2.7%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 WP312025 251106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  38.2  40.3  38.1  30.0  21.7  16.2  17.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -9.0  -7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.6%        4.8%