Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  40.8  38.0  37.2  28.6  19.1  14.1  16.4  U VU  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.8  20.6  22.3  25.9  29.4  33.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         32.4  32.4  36.5  42.9  47.3  52.0  55.0  55.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  61.0  67.0  75.0  60.0   8.0  41.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        1.2%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        1.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 WP312025 251106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  40.8  38.0  37.2  28.6  19.1  14.1  16.4  F VF  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -7.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.7%        4.8%