Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  37.2  36.4  32.0  26.5  17.0  16.6  16.6 VU  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.3  17.7  17.0  16.3  15.0  13.7  12.3  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4  46.5  48.6  52.9  57.3  55.1  59.6  57.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  67.0  73.0  73.0  48.0  23.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   7.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 WP312025 251106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  37.2  36.4  32.0  26.5  17.0  16.6  16.6 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   7.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%