Rapid Intensification Guidance WP312025 251106 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 34.8 33.7 33.0 18.9 14.4 14.4 14.4 U U U U N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.5 72.9 72.9 75.1 82.0 84.3 84.3 84.3 U U U U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 71.0 79.0 98.0 49.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 83.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 WP312025 251106 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.0 34.8 33.7 33.0 18.9 14.4 14.4 14.4 F F F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 83.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.5%