Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  36.1  34.7  25.3  18.7  20.6  27.3  27.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        100.7 100.7 105.1 109.6 114.3 112.0 114.3 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  64.0  69.0  21.0  24.0  48.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   7.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%        0.1%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP312025 251107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  36.1  34.7  25.3  18.7  20.6  27.3  27.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   7.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%