Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP312025 251107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  34.0  25.3  20.4  16.6  26.1  45.1  67.4  U  U  N  N  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 125.1 118.6 106.6  94.3  74.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  70.0  66.0  33.0  46.0  48.0  40.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        0.1%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP312025 251107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  34.0  25.3  20.4  16.6  26.1  45.1  67.4  F  F  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  59.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%