Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  13.1  14.0  16.8  19.6  16.4  19.0  23.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 105.0 104.0 105.0 108.0 114.0 112.0 115.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 117.0 148.0 174.0 174.0 203.0 174.0 104.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        6.0%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       40.4%       60.7%       50.5%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       36.3%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       34.8%       22.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       34.8%       22.2%
 45kt / 36h       47.6%       76.5%       62.1%
 55kt / 36h       32.2%       56.7%       44.4%
 55kt / 48h       99.6%       98.8%       99.2%
 70kt / 48h       98.8%       72.4%       85.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       92.5%       77.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP322025 251104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  13.1  14.0  16.8  19.6  16.4  19.0  23.3  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%