Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.90    141.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.0  22.1  21.7  18.3  23.8  23.0  27.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 107.0 106.0 106.0 118.0 115.0 114.0 109.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 141.0 139.0 135.0 112.0  85.0  49.0  33.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        6.7%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h       42.6%       55.1%       48.9%
 30kt / 24h       22.7%       30.4%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       30.4%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       30.4%       19.7%
 45kt / 36h       44.5%       69.4%       56.9%
 55kt / 36h       30.7%       46.9%       38.8%
 55kt / 48h       85.6%       54.9%       70.3%
 70kt / 48h       72.2%       53.4%       62.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       78.4%       70.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP322025 251104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.90    141.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.0  22.1  21.7  18.3  23.8  23.0  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%