Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251104 18UTC Storm Located at : 8.20 141.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 23.6 23.1 24.4 30.0 18.6 29.3 34.8 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 104.0 104.0 106.0 110.0 111.0 114.0 114.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 126.0 118.0 113.0 139.0 65.0 40.0 -20.0 F F F F VF N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 68.0 62.0 57.0 53.0 F N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 4.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.0% 4.5% 3.8% 25kt / 24h 30.3% 45.8% 38.1% 30kt / 24h 14.3% 22.6% 18.5% 35kt / 24h 5.5% 21.3% 13.4% 40kt / 24h 5.5% 20.1% 12.8% 45kt / 36h 32.1% 52.5% 42.3% 55kt / 36h 18.7% 26.0% 22.4% 55kt / 48h 42.8% 39.6% 41.2% 70kt / 48h 26.8% 33.0% 29.9% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 59.0% 60.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP322025 251104 18UTC Storm Located at : 8.20 141.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 23.6 23.1 24.4 30.0 18.6 29.3 34.8 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 68.0 62.0 57.0 53.0 U N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -4.0 4.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%