Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  12.3  14.7  17.9  22.1  14.4  25.7  35.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 106.0 105.0 106.0 110.0 108.0 113.0 112.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   156.0 129.0 137.0 177.0 126.0  72.0  43.0  19.0 VF  F VF VF  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        4.2%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       51.1%       43.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       26.7%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       26.5%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       26.5%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       42.2%       55.4%       48.8%
 55kt / 36h       26.5%       28.2%       27.4%
 55kt / 48h       94.5%       55.2%       74.9%
 70kt / 48h       88.0%       44.5%       66.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       70.2%       66.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 WP322025 251105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  12.3  14.7  17.9  22.1  14.4  25.7  35.9  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  59.0  50.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%