Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  17.9  19.5  24.9  16.8  19.7  29.2  29.3  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 105.0 104.0 104.0 110.0 104.0 108.0 105.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   129.0 137.0 177.0 161.0 109.0  37.0  55.0  37.0  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  70.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       40.6%       33.4%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       17.5%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%       16.9%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       16.9%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       36.8%       47.1%       42.0%
 55kt / 36h       22.3%       20.3%       21.3%
 55kt / 48h       67.5%       41.5%       54.5%
 70kt / 48h       49.6%       30.3%       39.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       57.3%       60.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP322025 251105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  17.9  19.5  24.9  16.8  19.7  29.2  29.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  70.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%