Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.60    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  24.0  28.1  23.7  18.4  25.0  31.4  37.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 104.0 104.0 105.0 107.0 105.0 107.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   195.0 180.0 181.0 157.0  81.0  77.0  23.0  23.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  75.0  71.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.8%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       38.3%       32.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       16.3%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       14.8%        8.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       14.8%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h       35.9%       46.5%       41.2%
 55kt / 36h       19.8%       20.5%       20.1%
 55kt / 48h       57.0%       38.8%       47.9%
 70kt / 48h       37.0%       27.8%       32.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.0%       56.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP322025 251105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.60    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  24.0  28.1  23.7  18.4  25.0  31.4  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  80.0  77.0  75.0  71.0  65.0  58.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%