Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.6  23.9  20.9  21.6  32.7  32.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 104.0 111.0 112.0 111.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   180.0 181.0 156.0 138.0  96.0  29.0  -1.0  23.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  71.0  72.0  64.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        4.0%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       40.0%       55.2%       47.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.3%       31.9%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       31.7%       17.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       26.6%       14.5%
 45kt / 36h       35.6%       65.0%       50.3%
 55kt / 36h       19.1%       40.1%       29.6%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       47.1%       44.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.4%       37.2%       31.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       57.7%       60.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP322025 251105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.6  23.9  20.9  21.6  32.7  32.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  71.0  72.0  64.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%