Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251106 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.20 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 21.6 18.1 21.4 31.1 29.8 37.8 39.1 N N F N U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 106.0 107.0 106.0 114.0 113.0 112.0 101.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 203.0 163.0 160.0 123.0 105.0 43.0 15.0 26.0 VF VF VF F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 54.0 54.0 49.0 50.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.8% 12.8% 13.3% 25kt / 24h 66.6% 73.7% 70.1% 30kt / 24h 44.5% 57.7% 51.1% 35kt / 24h 21.8% 57.7% 39.7% 40kt / 24h 21.8% 57.7% 39.7% 45kt / 36h 57.7% 72.6% 65.2% 55kt / 36h 35.4% 50.6% 43.0% 55kt / 48h 81.2% 52.1% 66.7% 70kt / 48h 58.9% 43.5% 51.2% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 51.8% 57.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP322025 251106 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.20 140.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 21.6 18.1 21.4 31.1 29.8 37.8 39.1 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 54.0 54.0 49.0 50.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%