Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251106 06UTC Storm Located at : 9.70 140.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.3 14.2 16.5 21.6 26.6 32.5 31.3 34.0 F F F N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.0 111.0 112.0 111.0 96.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 170.0 173.0 161.0 158.0 155.0 59.0 57.0 24.0 VF VF VF VF VF N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 70.0 70.0 68.0 62.0 57.0 54.0 52.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.7% 16.0% 15.9% 25kt / 24h 67.7% 74.7% 71.2% 30kt / 24h 49.8% 61.2% 55.5% 35kt / 24h 24.5% 61.2% 42.8% 40kt / 24h 17.8% 61.2% 39.5% 45kt / 36h 65.4% 73.3% 69.3% 55kt / 36h 42.0% 50.4% 46.2% 55kt / 48h 94.9% 56.1% 75.5% 70kt / 48h 86.1% 47.3% 66.7% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 60.2% 61.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP322025 251106 06UTC Storm Located at : 9.70 140.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.3 14.2 16.5 21.6 26.6 32.5 31.3 34.0 U U N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 70.0 70.0 68.0 62.0 57.0 54.0 52.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%