Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.1  27.0  31.0  30.7  38.5  40.4  31.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 102.0 101.0 105.0 110.0 112.0 105.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   161.0 122.0 121.0  84.0  42.0  14.0   4.0  22.0 VF  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  59.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%       10.3%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h       47.5%       58.0%       52.7%
 30kt / 24h       23.1%       38.7%       30.9%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       38.7%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       34.9%       19.1%
 45kt / 36h       32.1%       50.4%       41.3%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       26.1%       21.8%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       25.1%       36.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       15.4%       20.2%
 65kt / 72h       53.8%       29.4%       41.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP322025 251106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    139.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  24.1  27.0  31.0  30.7  38.5  40.4  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  59.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%