Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.6  30.4  32.7  37.2  38.3  41.7  30.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  99.0 102.0 108.0 106.0 110.0  84.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0  95.0  84.0  93.0  33.0  48.0  23.0   6.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%       14.0%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       50.6%       61.1%       55.9%
 30kt / 24h       25.6%       45.5%       35.5%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       45.5%       31.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       39.6%       22.3%
 45kt / 36h       32.5%       49.7%       41.1%
 55kt / 36h       16.9%       25.5%       21.2%
 55kt / 48h       45.4%       25.1%       35.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       13.8%       19.2%
 65kt / 72h       35.9%       22.3%       29.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP322025 251106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.6  30.4  32.7  37.2  38.3  41.7  30.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0 -11.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%