Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251107 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 69.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 28.9 38.4 41.4 39.7 43.6 35.6 36.8 N N U VU U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 100.0 101.0 108.0 106.0 110.0 108.0 75.0 65.0 F F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 105.0 92.0 117.0 139.0 91.0 45.0 5.0 30.0 F F F VF F N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 72.0 66.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 69.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 -5.0 -9.0 -15.0 -1.0 N N N N F F VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 50.5% 36.4% 43.5% 25kt / 24h 71.2% 72.8% 72.0% 30kt / 24h 55.2% 63.4% 59.3% 35kt / 24h 48.4% 63.4% 55.9% 40kt / 24h 22.5% 60.1% 41.3% 45kt / 36h 42.4% 53.8% 48.1% 55kt / 36h 24.1% 28.9% 26.5% 55kt / 48h 42.8% 22.6% 32.7% 70kt / 48h 21.9% 12.7% 17.3% 65kt / 72h 20.3% 16.5% 18.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP322025 251107 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 137.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 28.9 38.4 41.4 39.7 43.6 35.6 36.8 N N F VF F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 72.0 66.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 69.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 -5.0 -9.0 -15.0 -1.0 N N N N U U VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%