Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251107 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 37.4 40.6 44.3 40.8 46.0 35.1 33.1 N U U VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 101.0 104.0 106.0 109.0 110.0 79.0 65.0 67.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 117.0 139.0 91.0 83.0 19.0 16.0 9.0 F F VF F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 66.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 58.0 60.0 F N N N N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -13.0 -5.0 0.0 N N N N F VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 47.3% 22.6% 35.0% 25kt / 24h 60.2% 56.0% 58.1% 30kt / 24h 44.2% 42.5% 43.4% 35kt / 24h 40.7% 42.5% 41.6% 40kt / 24h 17.2% 39.3% 28.3% 45kt / 36h 35.3% 33.7% 34.5% 55kt / 36h 17.2% 13.2% 15.2% 55kt / 48h 27.5% 10.9% 19.2% 70kt / 48h 9.9% 4.6% 7.3% 65kt / 72h 14.3% 8.6% 11.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP322025 251107 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 136.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 37.4 40.6 44.3 40.8 46.0 35.1 33.1 N F F VF VF VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 66.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 58.0 60.0 U N N N N F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 4.0 1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -13.0 -5.0 0.0 N N N N U VU U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%