Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251107 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 135.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 30.8 42.7 46.8 39.7 40.1 36.9 45.2 U U VU VU U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 106.0 109.0 112.0 105.0 69.0 72.0 63.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 132.0 112.0 101.0 96.0 21.0 -20.0 20.0 -9.0 F F F F U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 69.0 67.0 71.0 70.0 70.0 73.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -18.0 -20.0 4.0 -3.0 N N F N VF VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.9% 19.5% 30.7% 25kt / 24h 55.3% 49.0% 52.2% 30kt / 24h 37.9% 36.6% 37.3% 35kt / 24h 32.4% 36.6% 34.5% 40kt / 24h 15.0% 32.5% 23.7% 45kt / 36h 30.0% 21.8% 25.9% 55kt / 36h 12.0% 7.0% 9.5% 55kt / 48h 14.3% 7.5% 10.9% 70kt / 48h 4.0% 2.4% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.30 WP322025 251107 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 135.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 30.8 42.7 46.8 39.7 40.1 36.9 45.2 F N VF VF F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 69.0 67.0 71.0 70.0 70.0 73.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -18.0 -20.0 4.0 -3.0 N N U N VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%