Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251107 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 133.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 95.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 42.7 46.8 38.7 45.5 35.9 36.2 42.2 N VU VU U VU U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 110.0 112.0 111.0 91.0 61.0 67.0 50.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 89.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 101.0 96.0 70.0 6.0 -2.0 26.0 -10.0 F F F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 68.0 73.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -6.0 -28.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N F N F VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 49.2% 20.1% 34.7% 25kt / 24h 58.4% 51.0% 54.7% 30kt / 24h 41.9% 41.5% 41.7% 35kt / 24h 40.2% 41.5% 40.8% 40kt / 24h 18.6% 35.6% 27.1% 45kt / 36h 25.4% 17.2% 21.3% 55kt / 36h 8.8% 5.2% 7.0% 55kt / 48h 8.6% 6.7% 7.7% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 1.2% 2.5% 1.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP322025 251107 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 133.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 42.7 46.8 38.7 45.5 35.9 36.2 42.2 N VF VF F VF F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 69.0 67.0 69.0 68.0 73.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -6.0 -28.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N U N U VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4%