Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  37.6  38.0  37.6  34.3  38.5  36.6  39.9 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 109.0  98.0  79.0  64.0  67.0  44.0  31.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.6  56.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   153.0  72.0  65.0  17.0  13.0  16.0   6.0  -4.0 VF  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0 -14.0 -21.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  F VF VF  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.7%       18.2%       42.0%
 25kt / 24h       55.7%       39.5%       47.6%
 30kt / 24h       46.3%       30.7%       38.5%
 35kt / 24h       46.3%       30.7%       38.5%
 40kt / 24h       22.4%       24.5%       23.5%
 45kt / 36h       43.4%       17.9%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h       10.8%        6.2%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%        3.3%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP322025 251108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  37.6  38.0  37.6  34.3  38.5  36.6  39.9 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0 -14.0 -21.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  U VU VU  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%