Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  34.6  34.7  25.4  33.7  41.4  46.9  38.1  N  U  U  N  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0  93.0  66.0  62.0  67.0  44.0  29.0  16.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  60.1  49.4  43.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0   5.0 -11.0  -3.0  -7.0 -29.0  54.0   6.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -21.0 -25.0 -16.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0  F VF VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.1%       17.5%       38.3%
 25kt / 24h       42.1%       33.0%       37.6%
 30kt / 24h       42.1%       27.4%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       42.1%       27.4%       34.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.3%       20.6%       16.4%
 45kt / 36h       43.6%       16.6%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.4%        6.5%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        2.0%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP322025 251108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  34.6  34.7  25.4  33.7  41.4  46.9  38.1  N  F  F  N  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -21.0 -25.0 -16.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0  U VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%