Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251108 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 126.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.7 34.1 25.2 26.4 32.8 40.0 46.6 41.7 U U N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 93.0 71.0 60.0 70.0 56.0 35.0 25.0 14.0 F N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 49.6 36.5 32.4 17.7 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -11.0 -3.0 17.0 -3.0 0.0 31.0 25.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 65.0 66.0 62.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -26.0 -15.0 3.0 0.0 -4.0 -6.0 6.0 VF VF VF N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.0% 12.8% 33.4% 25kt / 24h 33.0% 20.8% 26.9% 30kt / 24h 33.0% 16.1% 24.6% 35kt / 24h 33.0% 16.1% 24.6% 40kt / 24h 7.6% 10.4% 9.0% 45kt / 36h 52.7% 12.1% 32.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 WP322025 251108 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 126.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.7 34.1 25.2 26.4 32.8 40.0 46.6 41.7 F F N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 65.0 66.0 62.0 57.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -26.0 -15.0 3.0 0.0 -4.0 -6.0 6.0 VU VU VU N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.9% 2.0%