Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251109 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 23.0 32.1 31.3 46.0 39.8 41.1 33.0 U N U U VU U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 65.0 60.0 67.0 67.0 43.0 30.0 20.0 12.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 47.3 36.5 23.0 9.6 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 23.0 26.0 39.0 13.0 31.0 4.0 -2.0 N U U N U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 14.0 VF N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.7% 16.5% 34.1% 25kt / 24h 29.3% 21.2% 25.3% 30kt / 24h 29.3% 16.7% 23.0% 35kt / 24h 29.3% 16.7% 23.0% 40kt / 24h 6.6% 11.0% 8.8% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 WP322025 251109 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 23.0 32.1 31.3 46.0 39.8 41.1 33.0 N N N N VF F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 14.0 VU N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.5% 1.8%