Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  31.9  32.3  45.1  41.1  47.0  37.4  39.7  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  62.0  49.0  36.0  24.0  16.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  62.0  62.0  50.7  40.5  33.0  12.2   5.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  39.0  44.0  18.0  31.0  15.0 -41.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   1.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  10.0  15.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        0.5%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP322025 251109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  31.9  32.3  45.1  41.1  47.0  37.4  39.7  F  N  N VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   7.0   1.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  10.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.2%        4.1%