Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251110 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 39.5 37.0 38.9 41.2 37.3 45.6 55.8 U U U U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 31.0 27.0 23.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.3 63.6 57.4 55.5 34.6 27.2 16.7 19.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 25.0 45.0 60.0 -6.0 -19.0 0.0 46.0 N U N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 65.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -2.0 2.0 -2.0 -7.0 7.0 15.0 -13.0 N N N N F N U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 WP322025 251110 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.0 39.5 37.0 38.9 41.2 37.3 45.6 55.8 F F F F VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 65.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -2.0 2.0 -2.0 -7.0 7.0 15.0 -13.0 N N N N U N F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.4% 2.7%