Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251110 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 56.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 37.0 39.5 39.9 40.1 33.5 43.3 54.2 VU U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 31.0 23.0 22.0 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.6 78.6 72.4 61.2 54.3 48.0 42.2 43.6 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 46.0 60.0 49.0 -34.0 -23.0 35.0 59.0 U N N N VU VU N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 2.0 -2.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 -42.0 N N N F N N U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 WP322025 251110 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 37.0 39.5 39.9 40.1 33.5 43.3 54.2 VF F F F F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 2.0 -2.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 -42.0 N N N U N N F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.5% 1.8%