Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  35.7  38.3  37.7  30.5  35.6  44.0  63.8  U  U  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  23.0  19.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.4  70.5  61.2  61.2  49.6  27.0  18.7  42.2  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  51.0  38.0  -9.0  -8.0   8.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  47.0  42.0  34.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  17.0  26.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 WP322025 251110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.