Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251111 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 118.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.5 59.2 53.4 42.6 42.5 50.5 64.8 59.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 20.0 19.0 23.0 14.0 2.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.4 69.8 75.5 66.2 71.6 51.5 59.3 59.3 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 3.0 -27.0 -37.0 36.0 20.0 57.0 37.0 U U VU VU N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 62.0 63.0 53.0 34.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -9.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 16.0 -14.0 -7.0 F F F N N U VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 WP322025 251111 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 118.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.