Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251111 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 118.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.8 53.4 44.7 43.3 43.7 56.6 59.7 56.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 20.0 19.0 26.0 16.0 2.0 6.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.8 76.2 76.2 72.7 66.1 58.6 69.3 76.2 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -27.0 -37.0 12.0 39.0 32.0 64.0 15.0 U VU VU U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 55.0 43.0 37.0 U N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -5.0 2.0 -1.0 12.0 -28.0 -19.0 3.0 F F N N U VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 WP322025 251111 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 118.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.