Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.0  42.6  45.4  43.7  45.2  56.0  47.8  42.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  22.0  27.0  30.0  21.0  22.0  33.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  81.2  88.5  86.6  71.1  77.7  86.6  86.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -38.0  12.0  36.0  20.0  57.0  37.0   8.0 VU VU  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  49.0  35.0  31.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   2.0  17.0  22.0   5.0   8.0  17.0  F  N  N  U VU  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.14

 WP322025 251111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.