Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251112 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 38.2 37.5 43.6 60.4 67.3 56.6 50.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 26.0 20.0 24.0 4.0 2.0 12.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 93.5 82.7 81.0 76.1 79.3 79.3 79.3 82.7 N N N U N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 39.0 43.0 40.0 53.0 42.0 -16.0 14.0 U N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 56.0 53.0 45.0 35.0 31.0 35.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 20.0 19.0 8.0 -25.0 -11.0 17.0 20.0 N VU VU U VF F U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 WP322025 251112 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.