Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.7  55.6  56.6  57.1  66.3  51.2  40.9  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  15.0  18.0  30.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  89.3  87.7  86.1  91.0  99.8 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  26.0  18.0   8.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  44.0  41.0  29.0  31.0  37.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -8.0 -26.0 -25.0  -8.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  N  F VF VF  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 WP322025 251112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.