Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251113 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 122.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.2 59.2 61.7 62.1 48.0 41.8 42.3 42.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 15.0 17.0 23.0 27.0 35.0 35.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.2 87.7 92.7 92.7 96.2 99.8 103.5 103.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 47.0 32.0 21.0 0.0 11.0 1.0 1.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 41.0 37.0 31.0 29.0 38.0 39.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -32.0 -37.0 -27.0 -15.0 13.0 15.0 23.0 23.0 VF VF VF VF U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 WP322025 251113 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 122.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.