Rapid Intensification Guidance WP322025 251113 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 125.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 68.0 72.7 75.0 73.5 64.3 62.0 66.5 72.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 3.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 12.0 9.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 83.0 86.1 86.1 91.0 86.1 86.1 83.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 32.0 21.0 -17.0 -7.0 13.0 10.0 33.0 N N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 42.0 36.0 30.0 25.0 27.0 30.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -48.0 -46.0 -36.0 -23.0 16.0 21.0 37.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 WP322025 251113 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 125.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.