Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP322025 251113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        65.8  59.6  60.9  59.2  42.2  42.8  42.8  42.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   9.0  14.0  18.0  21.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  91.1  96.0  96.0  99.4 103.0 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  12.0   9.0  -1.0  -2.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  34.0  33.0  25.0  25.0  29.0  29.0  29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -27.0 -30.0 -11.0   7.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VF VF VF  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 WP322025 251113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.