Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP332025 251125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  23.7  26.0  25.5  30.5  38.0  48.6  37.1  F  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  66.0  75.0  72.0  52.0  48.0  40.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 127.3 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0 102.0  92.0  72.0  20.0   6.0  18.0  73.0 VF  F  F  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  11.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  14.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%       10.3%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       39.6%       61.3%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       17.8%       42.1%       29.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       42.1%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       38.5%       22.4%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       67.2%       46.6%
 55kt / 36h       14.6%       47.0%       30.8%
 55kt / 48h       26.6%       29.1%       27.9%
 70kt / 48h       11.5%       22.6%       17.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%       15.6%       12.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP332025 251125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  23.7  26.0  25.5  30.5  38.0  48.6  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  11.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  14.0  N  F  F VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%