Rapid Intensification Guidance WP332025 251125 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 25.9 25.5 23.5 31.9 42.6 40.6 32.2 N N N N U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 68.0 75.0 73.0 64.0 48.0 40.0 37.0 40.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3 122.3 117.9 F F F F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 92.0 72.0 66.0 30.0 25.0 62.0 62.0 F F N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 76.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 68.0 68.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 11.0 18.0 15.0 20.0 22.0 19.0 6.0 N U VU U VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.7% 10.5% 9.6% 25kt / 24h 38.6% 58.5% 48.5% 30kt / 24h 19.0% 40.6% 29.8% 35kt / 24h 9.9% 40.6% 25.2% 40kt / 24h 7.5% 37.6% 22.6% 45kt / 36h 20.8% 55.3% 38.1% 55kt / 36h 11.1% 33.4% 22.3% 55kt / 48h 16.6% 17.7% 17.2% 70kt / 48h 5.7% 11.2% 8.5% 65kt / 72h 5.7% 9.8% 7.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.86 WP332025 251125 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 25.9 25.5 23.5 31.9 42.6 40.6 32.2 N N N N N VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 76.0 76.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 68.0 68.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 11.0 18.0 15.0 20.0 22.0 19.0 6.0 N F VF F VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%