Rapid Intensification Guidance WP332025 251125 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 21.5 24.0 26.9 37.4 44.1 34.1 28.2 N N N N U VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 73.0 64.0 56.0 40.0 42.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 117.3 117.3 119.6 119.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 119.0 79.0 75.0 34.0 20.0 21.0 42.0 53.0 F N N N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 71.0 71.0 67.0 70.0 74.0 75.0 F F N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 16.0 13.0 16.0 24.0 18.0 13.0 4.0 U U U U VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.3% 13.3% 12.3% 25kt / 24h 40.2% 58.5% 49.3% 30kt / 24h 20.8% 43.3% 32.0% 35kt / 24h 11.5% 43.3% 27.4% 40kt / 24h 9.9% 39.9% 24.9% 45kt / 36h 17.8% 48.8% 33.3% 55kt / 36h 9.0% 27.4% 18.2% 55kt / 48h 10.9% 12.2% 11.6% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 6.7% 5.0% 65kt / 72h 4.2% 8.8% 6.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 WP332025 251125 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 21.5 24.0 26.9 37.4 44.1 34.1 28.2 N N N N F VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 71.0 71.0 67.0 70.0 74.0 75.0 U U N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 16.0 13.0 16.0 24.0 18.0 13.0 4.0 F F F F VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%