Rapid Intensification Guidance WP332025 251125 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 24.0 26.8 27.9 44.2 40.6 28.2 20.8 N N N N VU U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 64.0 60.0 52.0 45.0 45.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 107.3 114.3 114.3 114.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 75.0 34.0 37.0 4.0 47.0 60.0 56.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 71.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 F N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 13.0 16.0 14.0 21.0 20.0 8.0 0.0 U U U U VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.9% 30.6% 32.2% 25kt / 24h 57.6% 72.0% 64.8% 30kt / 24h 39.3% 65.9% 52.6% 35kt / 24h 32.5% 65.9% 49.2% 40kt / 24h 24.4% 62.3% 43.3% 45kt / 36h 22.9% 51.8% 37.4% 55kt / 36h 11.8% 31.1% 21.5% 55kt / 48h 7.1% 13.9% 10.5% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 6.9% 4.2% 65kt / 72h 2.6% 10.9% 6.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.78 WP332025 251125 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 24.0 26.8 27.9 44.2 40.6 28.2 20.8 N N N N VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 71.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 U N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 13.0 16.0 14.0 21.0 20.0 8.0 0.0 F F F F VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%