Rapid Intensification Guidance WP332025 251126 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 89.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 26.4 29.7 37.0 45.2 39.0 31.9 22.5 N N N U VU U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 52.0 48.0 40.0 39.0 45.0 42.0 45.0 N N N N U N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 104.6 100.1 100.1 95.7 102.3 102.3 102.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 25.0 24.0 21.0 49.0 78.0 56.0 32.0 N U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 74.0 77.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 13.0 12.0 21.0 20.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 U U U VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.2% 20.6% 20.4% 25kt / 24h 31.6% 46.2% 38.9% 30kt / 24h 18.5% 37.8% 28.2% 35kt / 24h 17.5% 37.8% 27.6% 40kt / 24h 8.2% 31.4% 19.8% 45kt / 36h 8.3% 21.9% 15.1% 55kt / 36h 3.2% 8.5% 5.8% 55kt / 48h 1.5% 5.2% 3.3% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 3.7% 2.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.36 WP332025 251126 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.50 117.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 26.4 29.7 37.0 45.2 39.0 31.9 22.5 N N N F VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 74.0 77.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 13.0 12.0 21.0 20.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 F F F VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%