Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP332025 251126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  29.0  36.8  43.3  39.6  34.3  27.2  22.5  N  N  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 109.3 109.3 102.3 109.3 109.3 109.3 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  24.0  20.0  57.0  52.0  66.0  52.0  25.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0  18.0  23.0  12.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.7%       17.0%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       36.1%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       26.0%       20.4%
 35kt / 24h       14.7%       26.0%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       22.1%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       16.9%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        5.9%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        5.7%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP332025 251126 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  29.0  36.8  43.3  39.6  34.3  27.2  22.5  N  N  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0  18.0  23.0  12.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%