Rapid Intensification Guidance AL022026 260719 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 20.2 24.3 27.0 39.8 44.1 46.7 34.0 F N N N U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 39.0 41.0 36.0 27.0 N N N N U N U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -10.0 -14.0 3.0 -53.0 -29.0 11.0 -43.0 U U U U VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 57.0 59.0 53.0 51.0 46.0 47.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 2.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 1.3% 11.3% 6.3% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 4.1% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 3.4% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.2% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 9.0% 4.7% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 2.2% 1.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 AL022026 260719 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.50 85.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 20.2 24.3 27.0 39.8 44.1 46.7 34.0 N N N N F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 54.0 57.0 59.0 53.0 51.0 46.0 47.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 2.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%