Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022026 260720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.2  26.4  31.2  40.2  44.8  42.9  31.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  33.0  29.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -20.0  -6.0 -86.0 -51.0   9.0 -31.0 -17.0  U VU  U VU VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.7%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 AL022026 260720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.2  26.4  31.2  40.2  44.8  42.9  31.3  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%